Emerging markets uncertainty

Last week Gavyn Davies reported in FT.com a summary of his debate on emerging markets with three prominent economists: Maurice Obstfeld (USC-Berkeley), Alan M. Taylor (UC-Davis), and Dominic Wilson (Co-Head of Global Economics, Goldman Sachs) – the “panel”. In summary (read full transcript here), the panel finds much vulnerability in the emerging markets (EMs). What’s more, any significant upset in the EMs might  backfire into developed markets (DMs) instabilities via external sector and commodity prices imbalances. Continue reading

Sorting through “emerging” financial markets

Wrapping up this year’s Eastern Economic Association Conference, where I organized and chaired a session entitled ‘The perils of financial deepening and post-crisis development in emerging markets‘.

The panel addressed current opportunities and risks to [what we’ve become accustomed to refer to as] emerging economies given their increased involvement in the international capital markets & commodity trade, sovereign borrowing, and exchange rate stabilization strategies in the light of economic uncertainty exacerbated by sporadic capital flows, migration, trade imbalance, and a host of other factors, climate change included. Continue reading

Daron Acemoglu at Armenian Economic Association 2013 meeting;

Hi, follow this link for keynote address by Prof. Daron Acemoglu of MIT at the Armenian Economic Association’s meeting in October 2013.  AEA 2013, keynote: Daron Acemoglu, MIT

I followed up with a question on South Korea’s experience and transformation in Eastern Europe. Why such a question? The theme comes up routinely in almost any informed discussion centered around economic development. Check it here.

Overall, there were some really interesting points in the keynote presentation and in the Q&A and during the entire conference.

New paper: is Russia still a BRIC?

Good news, in its Nov-Dec 2012 issue Challenge  publishes my analysis on Russia’s economic diversification potential.

In the paper entitled “Is Russia Still a BRIC?  Some Observations on the Economy and Its Potential for Diversification” I try to raise a balanced optimism commenting on growth in new local sectors/firms, the so-called “gazelles” as referred to in the Russian media, that specifically focus on domestic demand. Certainly macroeconomic challenges persist, but Continue reading

Households Deleveraging from FRBNY

FRBNY has just released its Quarterly Report on Household Debt and Credit for Q2 2012 with a follow up update from FRBNY Liberty Street Economics.

In the update to their earlier report, FRBNY economists confirm continued overall deleveraging trend of the US households.

While on relative scale trends appear in somewhat opposite directions (e.g. credit cards vs. student loans chart vs. mortgage debt), on aggregate households are reducing their debt positions, primarily by a) reducing the volumes of new mortgage liabilities; b) paying out existing mortgage; and c) due to foreclosures/default. Continue reading

Central banks

I’m attending a two day 21st annual H. Minsky Conference organized by the Levy Economics Institute.

Really good presentations and interesting discussions. I’ll try to share more detailed impressions later on (most likely in the classroom), for now though a brief remark.

One of the speakers suggested that Central Banks’ focus is primarily stability of the financial system, causing a mixed reaction in the audience. Continue reading