In a recent paper, in the International Business Review, entitled “The Legends of the Caucasus: Economic Transformation of Armenia and Georgia” I attempt to evaluate the past two decades of macroeconomic, business, and institutional transformation in the two small open economies.
All standard clarifications on the imperfections of the post-socialist transition aside, I argue, that the two are open to international business that follows the local context.
Last week Gavyn Davies reported in FT.com a summary of his debate on emerging markets with three prominent economists: Maurice Obstfeld (USC-Berkeley), Alan M. Taylor (UC-Davis), and Dominic Wilson (Co-Head of Global Economics, Goldman Sachs) – the “panel”. In summary (read full transcript here), the panel finds much vulnerability in the emerging markets (EMs). What’s more, any significant upset in the EMs might backfire into developed markets (DMs) instabilities via external sector and commodity prices imbalances. Continue reading
BRIC[S] for better or worse are first and foremost individual countries and we are reminded of that view in this high caliber panel here with remarks from an impressive panel.
Wrapping up this year’s Eastern Economic Association Conference, where I organized and chaired a session entitled ‘The perils of financial deepening and post-crisis development in emerging markets‘.
The panel addressed current opportunities and risks to [what we’ve become accustomed to refer to as] emerging economies given their increased involvement in the international capital markets & commodity trade, sovereign borrowing, and exchange rate stabilization strategies in the light of economic uncertainty exacerbated by sporadic capital flows, migration, trade imbalance, and a host of other factors, climate change included. Continue reading
Hi, follow this link for keynote address by Prof. Daron Acemoglu of MIT at the Armenian Economic Association’s meeting in October 2013. AEA 2013, keynote: Daron Acemoglu, MIT
I followed up with a question on South Korea’s experience and transformation in Eastern Europe. Why such a question? The theme comes up routinely in almost any informed discussion centered around economic development. Check it here.
Overall, there were some really interesting points in the keynote presentation and in the Q&A and during the entire conference.
Routledge has just published my Innovative fiscal policy and economic development in transition economies in a paperback and (significantly more) affordable edition!
Please click here to preview and to share. Continue reading
This is probably one of the most insightful WEF panel’s on the state of the global financial system. Right here
Overall the debate happens to also be in tune with our latest paper on redefined fundamental uncertainty. Continue reading
In this paper that has just been published in The IEB International Journal of Finance my co-author and I discuss the problem of uncertainty and emerging markets post-crisis development Continue reading
Good news, in its Nov-Dec 2012 issue Challenge publishes my analysis on Russia’s economic diversification potential.
In the paper entitled “Is Russia Still a BRIC? Some Observations on the Economy and Its Potential for Diversification” I try to raise a balanced optimism commenting on growth in new local sectors/firms, the so-called “gazelles” as referred to in the Russian media, that specifically focus on domestic demand. Certainly macroeconomic challenges persist, but Continue reading
FRBNY has just released its Quarterly Report on Household Debt and Credit for Q2 2012 with a follow up update from FRBNY Liberty Street Economics.
In the update to their earlier report, FRBNY economists confirm continued overall deleveraging trend of the US households.
While on relative scale trends appear in somewhat opposite directions (e.g. credit cards vs. student loans chart vs. mortgage debt), on aggregate households are reducing their debt positions, primarily by a) reducing the volumes of new mortgage liabilities; b) paying out existing mortgage; and c) due to foreclosures/default. Continue reading